Monday, 20 January 2025: We look back at Friday’s Gold Coast card while also rating Wodeton's scintillating debut win.

O' OLE winning the THE STAR GOLD COAST MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC at Gold Coast in Australia.

2yo Classic

O' Ole  took out the Magic Millions 2yo Classic (1200m), bouncing back from a disappointing effort at Randwick prior. A testament to Bjorn Baker's training, he's managed to improve his RAS rating by 15 pounds on his previous start, running to a new peak of 109 on Friday night.

In terms of Magic Millions winners, it was highlighted that this year's two-year-old crop this year hadn't been historically strong and whether one would put their hand up and while O'Ole has won well, this is still a fairly even bunch.

A rating of 109 is on the lower side for Magic Millions winners, with the list, going back to 2000, headed by Dance Hero running to 121 in 2004.

With the range of winners stretching from 121 to 105, the mean and median Magic Millions winner rates 113, so O'Ole is five pounds below that, sitting alongside Coolangatta in 2022.

It is ahead of recent winners Skirt The Law & Away Game (both 108) but well behind the likes of Storm Boy (116), Capitalist (115) and Sunlight (115), while Houtzen ran 113, Exhilirates 111 and Shaquero 110.

Naturally, the first few here will all be looking to try and aim up at a Golden Slipper, but history will note just three horses have done the double- Dance Hero, who is the best Magic Millions winner we've ever seen, Phelan Ready (117 in MM) and Capitalist.

I'd suggest that the Slipper winner wasn't at the Gold Coast on Friday night, and the opener on Saturday at Rosehill might have had something to do with that…

 

3yo Guineas

Moving over to the Magic Millions 3yo Guineas (1400m) where Bosustow  has narrowly beaten Give Me Space  and run to a RAS rating of 108, up from a peak of 105 previously.

Similarly to the 2yo Classic, this rating is on the lower side for a typical Guineas winner, which range from 118-101.

The good news for Bosustow is that he's clearly out-rated last year's winner Abounding, who only just cracked the ton at 101.

Still, Abounding has run some good races since and holds a peak of 110, only 2.2 lengths off Bella Nipotina in the Tatts Tiara last year.

The best winner of the Magic Millions Guineas (if he still holds the title, I can't keep up) is Alligator Blood at 118 ahead of Pierata at 116, both top line Group 1 horses.

More recently, Bosustow fits in well against some softer winners, only two pounds below Aim (110), one pound behind King Of Sparta (109) and two pounds ahead of Fashion Legend (106).

Give Me Space was very good from a long way back again having run to a fast-finishing, sectionally marked up 103 the start prior. He's gone 107 here in second and I'd suggest he'll be aimed right up at a Stradbroke Handicap in the Winter.

BOSUSTOW winning the GOLD COAST MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO GUINEAS at Gold Coast in Australia.

 

Wodeton

It would be remiss of me not to touch on boom two-year-old colt Wodeton  who hacked up on debut at Rosehill to back up the excellent trials and stamp himself as the horse to beat in the Golden Slipper.

The rating of 103 here doesn't give the full picture, earning a large 'P' on the end of his Timeform rating, indicating that the horse is capable of much better.

Wodeton gets this 'P' because McDonald barely touched him from the 100m onwards and he's still won by 3.9 lengths in very good time.

He had first use of the track so maybe that's a factor in the time figure, but even if you are generous with that, it's hard to ignore he's run just 0.04 seconds slower, and eased right down, than Polyglot  over the same trip, while also running faster than Bm78 winner South Of India .

Polyglot is no slouch, he's an 100 rater with form around some top three-year-olds, and Wodeton, a two-year-old on debut, has effectively matched him on the clock while being throttled down in the straight.

Comparing him to other recent Sydney debut winner Pallaton , he just edges that horse who ran 102, and there's a good tie in here that potentially stops Wodeton (for now) running too much higher.

Wodeton beat The Magic Man (2nd, 3.9L) on Saturday while Pallaton beat him home by 5.9 lengths. The Magic Man has improved no doubt, especially as this was on testing ground, but not by more than a few lengths.

All in all, Wodeton has set a strong benchmark. When you compare it to the Magic Millions, yes O'Ole has run a higher rating, but the Timeform (& RAS) model facilitates that, built around rating races on horses as well as horses on races, and running a higher rating in a lower grade of races will always be more difficult, hence why we use other factors (the big one being the time and sectionals) to estimate a horse's ability.

The rating is strong, but the time, sectionals and vibe are stronger, and while backing anything at ~$4.50 for the Golden Slipper now, when we'll have a Silver Slipper winner, a Todman winner and a Riesling winner all to run higher ratings than this, is silly, there's no doubt Wodeton is very exciting.